Financial Report Archives – Michael Inkman

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 6, 2020

July 6, 2020 by Michael Inkman

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 6, 2020 Last week’s scheduled economic reports included readings on pending home sales, Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, and labor sector reports on private and public-sector job growth. Data on construction spending was also released. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Pending Home Sales Jump in May

Sales of homes for which purchase contracts were signed rose by 44.30 percent in May and was the highest month-to-month increase recorded since the report’s inception in 2001..Pending home sales are sales with signed purchase contracts but aren’t closed.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors® said, “This has been a spectacular bounce-back and also speaks to how the housing sector could lead the way for a broader economic recovery.” This positive news could be dampened by rising infection rates for the Covid-19 outbreak as some states reversed decisions to re-open additional parts of their economies.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Rises in April

The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported that home prices grew by 0.10 percent to 4.70 percent on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. This reading lagged behind the worst part of the Covid-19 outbreak and analysts cautioned that home price growth would fall in the future. The Case-Shiller 20-City Index reported the top three cities for home price growth were Phoenix, Arizona, Seattle, Washington, and Minneapolis Minnesota. The geographical disparity between these cities differs from recent years when coastal cities dominated home price growth rates.

In related news, the Commerce Department reported improvement in construction spending in May. Construction spending fell -2.20 percent in May as compared to -3.50 percent in April.

Mortgage Rates Hit All-Time Low; Jobless Claims Ease

Freddie Mac reported the lowest mortgage rates reported since the inception of their Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.07 percent and were eight basis points lower. Rates for 15-year mortgages dropped by three basis points on average to 2.56 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages dropped by eight basis points on average to 3.00 percent.

Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims fell to 1.43 million claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 1.48 million initial claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims rose from 19.20 million claims to 19.30 million continuing jobless claims.filed. New and continuing jobless claims were far above pre-coronavirus levels.

Job Growth Reports Mixed as Unemployment Rate Falls

ADP reported 2.37 million private-sector jobs added in June as compared to May’s reading of 3.07 million private sector jobs added. The federal government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 4.80 million public and private sector jobs added in June as compared to 2.70 million public and private sector jobs added in May.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on job openings and weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 29, 2020

June 29, 2020 by Michael Inkman

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 29, 2020 Last week’s scheduled economic news included readings on sales of new and pre-owned homes and reports on inflation. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new and continuing jobless claims were also released.

Home Sales Results Mixed for May

The National Association of Realtors® reported fewer sales of pre-owned homes in May at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 3.91 million sales. Analysts expected 3.80 million sales as compared to April’s reading of 4.33 million sales. This was the lowest reading for sales of pre-owned homes since July 2010 and sales were 26.60 percent lower year-over-year.

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors®, said that sales were expected to rise as coronavirus-related restrictis were lifted and people returned to work. Mr. Yun said in a report that sales of previously-owned homes should surpass last year’s annual sales pace in the second half of 2020. Mr. Yun made this forecast before rising coronavirus cases occurring after the reopening of the economy started.

There was a 4.80 months supply of previously-owned homes for sale in May, which was below the six-months supply indicating a balanced market.

The Commerce Department reported 676,000 new homes sold in May on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis; this surpassed expectations of 650,000 sales and April’s revised annual sales pace of 580,000 new homes sold. New home sales rose by 45.50 percent in May in the Northeastern region; New home sales rose by 29 percent in the West and 15.20 percent in the South, New home sales fell by -6.40 percent in the Midwest.

The average sale price of new homes was $317,900 in May. There was a 5.60 months supply of new homes available in May, which nearly matched the six months average inventory.

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as JoblessClaims Fall

Freddie Mac reported little change in average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages were unchanged at an average rate of 3.13 percent; The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 2.59 percent and the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell one basis point to 3.08 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.50 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 1.48 million from the prior week’s reading of 1.51 million new claims. Continuing jobless claims were also lower last week with 19.50 million claims filed as compared to 20.30 million claims filed the previous week.

Rising Inflation Indicates Improving Economy

Inflation rose to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 8.20 percent in May as compared to April’s reading of -12.60 percent Analysts expected the inflation rate to reach 9.90 percent.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news releases include readings on pending home sales, Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, and labor-sector jobs reports. The national unemployment rate will be released along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and new and continuing jobless claims.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 22, 2020

June 22, 2020 by Michael Inkman

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 22, 2020 Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings on U.S. Housing markets, housing starts, and building permits issued. Weekly reports on new and continuing jobless claims and mortgage rates were also released.

NAHB: Builder Confidence in Housing Market Recovers in June

Analysts cited slim supplies of available homes, tight housing markets, and low mortgage rates as drivers of new home sales. Builder confidence in current housing market conditions rose 21 points to an index reading of 58 in June; builder confidence in housing market conditions in the next six months rose 22 points to 68.

Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new single-family housing developments rose from May’s index reading of 21 to 43 in June. Readings for buyer traffic are typically lower than the benchmark reading of 50.

Readings over 50 indicate that most builders are confident about housing market conditions and component readings of the Housing Market Index. Prospective home buyers continued to face obstacles of high unemployment and loss of income due to the coronavirus pandemic; these factors will likely impact builder confidence for months ahead as impacts of the pandemic change.

Housing Starts, Building Permits Issued Increase in May

The Commerce Department reported 974,000 housing starts on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis in May as compared to a pace of 934,000 housing starts reported in April. Building permits issued in May rose to 1.22 million permits issued on an annual basis from April’s pace of 1.07 million permits issued. Analysts expected 1.25 million permits to be issued in May on an annual basis.

Mortgage Rates Hit All-Time Low as Jobless Claims Decrease

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates that were the lowest mortgage rates recorded. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was eight basis points lower at 3.13 percent; interest rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.58 percent and were four basis points lower than for the prior week. Interest rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages averaged one basis point lower at 3.09 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell to 1.51 million claims last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.57 million initial claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also fell; 20.50 million claims were reported as compared to 20.60 million ongoing jobless claims reported the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include reports on sales of new and previously-owned homes, FHFA’s Home Price Index, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.

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