With the continued delay in the CPI and PCE inflation data, this week’s headlines will focus on unemployment figures. Job reports show an increase of 178,000 workers, though this growth is unlikely to persist given the current state of the economy. Unemployment data has also shown a positive release, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous report.
Since the Federal Reserve discontinued rate cuts in December, the outlook remains highly uncertain as it continues to grapple with numerous aspects of the current economic environment.
Unemployment Data
The U.S. added a greater-than-expected 178,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell a tick to 4.3%, signs that the labor market is holding firm even as the economy undergoes another spasm of uncertainty tied to the Iran war. The increase in employment in March, the biggest in 15 months, was padded by the return of 31,000 striking nurses. Better weather last month may have also helped.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02%, with the current rate at 5.77%
- 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08%, with the current rate at 6.46%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.19%, with current rates at 5.91%
- 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.19%, with current rates at 5.93%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 202,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The prior week landed at 211,000.
What’s Ahead
We should see the PCE index data (the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation) as well as CPI data released.