All posts tagged: Jobless Claims

The Consumer Price Index was scheduled to be released this week but has once again been delayed, with no explanation provided. This left the unemployment data as the only notable economic release from last week. The data showed that unemployment numbers came in higher than expected; however, this result is somewhat tempered by the fact that the figures are supported by a more limited data set.

The Federal Reserve Interest Rate decision occurred the prior week, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates another quarter as expected by many industry analysts. This has given the market a lot of optimism that the trend will still continue and the Chairman Jerome Powell has stated it’s a good time to wait and see where the economy is headed before cutting rates further, giving further confidence more will be coming next year.

The PCE Index reports have come in–albeit delayed–and show inflation numbers that fell within expectations. The data also indicates that inflation has not worsened since before the government shutdown. It is widely believed that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates once more.

Many of the reports scheduled for release last week were delayed yet again, including the anticipated unemployment data. There is an expectation that they will be released next week. The only on-time release was the third-party Consumer Sentiment report from the University of Michigan, which aligned with expectations and generally indicated that consumers remain dissatisfied with the current state of things, citing high prices and consistently weakening incomes.

This week finally got a strong release of regularly scheduled data, with unemployment figures coming out first, along with employment-rate data.

The prior week included the Consumer Price Index, which came in favorable. Some of the unemployment-related numbers, however, weren’t as telling as they could be: the forecast was roughly 50,000, but the actual figure landed closer to 110,000. That’s an order-of-magnitude miss, suggesting we may need to allow some time for the data to self-correct.

In the aftermath of the recent government shutdown, the expected releases are still delayed. This round of releases is particularly impactful, involving key inflation reports from both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. While the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE Index–and also relies on its own methods for collecting inflation data–the delay is undoubtedly troubling for the broader market, as the shutdown disrupted a wide range of services across the nation. The data is now expected to be released next week.

With the government shutdown heading into a possible resolution, there were still delays on important data such as employment report releases. This has been somewhat relieved with the release of other reports that have been delayed in the past within the current government shutdown.

With the ongoing government shutdown, other major releases have hit a snag, as there is still very limited information for when the shutdown may end. The largest and most impactful releases continuing to move forward are those from third-party sources still publishing data — such as the Consumer Sentiment report — which shows that consumers remain concerned about inflation but have recently grown more optimistic about the labor market.

While the government shutdown remains ongoing, inflation data for both the CPI and PPI has been released, indicating that inflation came in below expectations.

While the government shutdown remains ongoing, inflation data for both the CPI and PPI has been released, indicating that inflation came in below expectations.