All posts tagged: Mortgage Rates

Following the release of key data such as the FOMC rate decision and CPI and PPI inflation reports, only the PCE Index reports remained to set the course, which are coming in well within expectations. The Consumer Confidence Report is also a significant concern since it influences broader economic decisions when consumers hesitate to spend, usually due to rising living costs.

Currently, the Retail Sales Report is the sole report that has weight. With the passage of more optimistic inflation data reports, retail sales coming in slightly under expectations will have little to no bearing on the overall outlook. Given the last major reports indicating the economy’s health and state of inflation, there is more optimism toward a potential rate cut this year. Lending partners have still been quick to continue cutting rates.

A welcome and unexpected data release for both the PPI and CPI shows inflation expectations coming in lower than expected. The positive news was somewhat mitigated by the hawkish FOMC rate decision that also took place during the same week. Still, there is more optimism given that the data releases in the past 30 days have shown signs of inflation coming under control. At the very least, it suggests that the Federal Reserve’s policy to keep inflation under control has been effective. As a result, lending partners have quickly cut rates again after the meeting this week.

With the CPI and PPI reports coming up this week, the previous week was light on reports of any significance. Most notable was the Non-Farm Payrolls which can have an outsized impact on inflation data reporting, as it’s a useful barometer to compare the cost of goods to the payroll of the average consumer. Following that is the ISM Manufacturing Index which came in slightly under expectations. Lastly, the JOLTS Job Openings is a minor indicator, but useful for seeing the state of the job market.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data, the PCE Index, was the highlight of this week. These were followed up loosely by trade balance, retail inventories, and GDP — all of which are strong secondary indicators for current inflation.

The Consumer Sentiment Report was the sole important report to take place the prior week, keeping with the trend of the cooling off period that happens the weeks following the CPI and PPI data releases.

The prior week showed a surprising display of inflation, in that for consumers, it was less than expected. This is giving way to some optimism that inflation is on the right track to being under control.

On the other end of the spectrum, for producers, inflation had shown to be slightly higher than expected. But the far higher impact of the two reports is the Consumer Price Index.

The Federal Reserve had still stuck to their stance as from the last FOMC opting to withhold any rate reduction decisions until late in the year, but the data coming in largely on a positive note has changed the previously highly negative outlooks into a neutral stance.

An extremely light week following the FOMC, with the only note-worthy reporting being the Consumer Sentiment reports from the University of Michigan, which gives a long term outlook of the consumer on the economy. The report has come in well under expectations, much more so than any previous release in the last 6 months. This is largely due to the increase in the cost of living for every sector.